Publication Date: 03-10-2026

My Predictions for the 98th Academy Awards

By: Steve Pulaski

Tis the time of the year where the best Sunday of the year is almost open us: Oscar Sunday. Over the past several years, I’ve found it best to release my predictions in the week leading up to the big show. It allows me time to monitor trends, see the results of other awards shows, and, in this fast-moving day-and-age, it’s better off to wait until something is imminent to do a project as massive as this.

This year, I’ve seen seven of the 10 Best Picture nominees. What a strong crop of nominees too. Outside of F1, I think the real surprise was Train Dreams (a movie I did watch but did not review). Netflix’s big contributions to the Oscars were predicted to be both Frankenstein and Jay Kelly, though the latter didn’t seem to have the awards push from the company that many expected.

The big headline maker this cycle, however, is easily Sinners; a record-breaking 16 nominations across 24 categories will do that. To put it simply, the only categories in which the film didn’t merit a nomination are ones for which it’s ineligible (it’s not a documentary, not a short film, etc). Tip of the cap to Ryan Coogler and the massively talented cast and crew behind my second favorite film of 2025.

Per usual, I have my predictions. Feel free to follow along or use them to win your Oscar pool. And, if you so happen to care, I’ll be recapping the show on Y105 from 6-10am CST on Monday, March 16th. For bragging purposes, here are my records for predicting the Academy Awards over the last six years:

92nd Academy Awards – 17-7
93rd Academy Awards – 15-8
94th Academy Awards – 19-4
95th Academy Awards – 17-6
96th Academy Awards – 14-9
97th Academy Awards – 13-10

Without further adieu, here is my annual attempt at a 24-0 record at handicapping the Oscars!

Predicted winners will be in bold.

Best Picture:

• “Bugonia”
• “F1”
• “Frankenstein”
• “Hamnet”
• “Marty Supreme”
• “One Battle After Another”
• “The Secret Agent”
• “Sentimental Value”
• “Sinners”
• “Train Dreams”

In contrast to last year’s Best Picture race, which was as wide open as I could remember, this year’s has come down to two films from the jump: Sinners and One Battle After Another. At this point, it kind of feels like it would be a slight shock if One Battle After Another doesn’t win. The timeliness yet simultaneous timelessness of its story revolving around political revolutionaries using classic tactics to combat contemporary threats in a grand, sweeping epic makes it a fitting choice for the top honor. With Sinners as the metaphorical runner-up in this situation, I struggled to think of what would be the third place choice. The fact that I can’t even decide a potential upset (maybe Hamnet?) shows you how fiercely debated this category has been between the two most acclaimed films of 2025.

Best Director:

• Chloé Zhao – “Hamnet”
• Josh Safdie – “Marty Supreme”
• Paul Thomas Anderson – “One Battle After Another”
• Joachim Trier – “Sentimental Value”
• Ryan Coogler – “Sinners”

Paul Thomas Anderson seems like the runaway pick for Best Director, given how much One Battle After Another‘s success as a film is due to his vision, which was refined and was reworked multiple different points across decades.

Best Actor:

• Timothée Chalamet – “Marty Supreme”
• Leonardo DiCaprio – “One Battle After Another”
• Ethan Hawke – “Blue Moon”
• Michael B. Jordan – “Sinners”
• Wagner Moura – “The Secret Agent”

There’s a part of me that really wants to see Ethan Hawke pull the Anthony Hopkins/The Father-sized upset for his tremendous performance in Blue Moon here. We can’t necessarily say “stranger things have happened” because we saw “stranger things” happen in the aforementioned instance. That said, Michael B. Jordan’s dual-performance in Sinners will not only be rewarded on Sunday night, it will also be one of the defining pillars of his still young career.

Going all the way back to 2013 when Jordan starred in Coogler’s debut, Fruitvale Station, I opined that he would one day win an Oscar. Sunday looks to be that day. While I’m at it, I’ll throw out another hot take that will prove prophetic in the future. I think Tyriq Withers will earn a Best Actor nomination at some point; let’s say the next 15 years. Lately, the films in which he’s been in haven’t been great, but he has been supremely promising.

Best Actress:

• Jessie Buckley – “Hamnet”
• Rose Byrne – “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
• Kate Hudson – “Song Sung Blue”
• Renate Reinsve – “Sentimental Value”
• Emma Stone – “Bugonia”

The Oscars have the chance to do something hilarious. Jessie Buckley stars in Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Bride!, which opened last weekend to mostly odious reception from critics and audiences. Her performance isn’t conventionally good, but she clearly nails the tone and approach of her director.

Now, why would that matter in the slightest? Do the Academy voters remotely consider this? Well, back in 2007, Eddie Murphy seemed like a shoe-in to win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor for his work in Dreamgirls. Then, Norbit came out two weeks before the awards, and one-time dark horse Alan Arkin won for his role in Little Miss Sunshine. I’m just throwing that out there.

Best Supporting Actor:

• Benicio Del Toro – “One Battle After Another”
• Jacob Elordi – “Frankenstein”
• Delroy Lindo – “Sinners”
• Sean Penn – “One Battle After Another”
• Stellan Skarsgard – “Sentimental Value”

Sean Penn’s nasty, venomous performance in One Battle After Another essentially had “Oscar” written all over it from the moment the earliest reviews of the film began trickling out. After winning for his performances in Mystic River and Milk, should Penn win for One Battle After Another on Sunday night, he’ll join a short list of performers who have won three acting Oscars; a list that includes, Meryl Streep, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Frances McDormand, to name a few. Only Katharine Hepburn ever won four.

Best Supporting Actress:

• Elle Fanning – “Sentimental Value”
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – “Sentimental Value”
• Amy Madigan – “Weapons”
• Wunmi Mosaku – “Sinners”
• Teyana Taylor – “One Battle After Another”

Best Supporting Actress appears to be the most contested category this year, with three potential winners. Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku have both won awards for their respective performances at other shows. I feel like I’m going against the recent grain with this pick, but I think Amy Madigan wins it all this go-round. For one, she’s significantly older than her other nominees, so there is a legacy factor here. Furthermore, her performance is so integral to Weapons, from her acting to her appearance, that I also think there’s a test-of-time argument that will make it one of the most memorable horror characters of the decade.

Like so many others, I’ve relished the renaissance the horror genre has experienced over the last several years. It’s not a moment. It’s a Golden Age. And Madigan winning an Oscar for her performance as Aunt Gladys would be a towering achievement for an oft-marginalized genre.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

• “Frankenstein” – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
• “Kokuho” – Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
• “Sinners” – Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
• “The Smashing Machine” – Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
• “The Ugly Stepsister” – Thomas Foldbrg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg

Best Original Score:

• “Bugonia” – Jerskin Fendrix
• “Frankenstein” – Alexandre Desplat
• “Hamnet” – Max Richter
• “One Battle after Another” – Jonny Greenwood
• “Sinners” – Ludwig Goransson

I know it’s part of the soundtrack and not the original score (which was dazzling, credit to Ludwig Goransson), but I don’t plan to stop talking to people about “Rocky Road to Dublin” any time soon.

Best Live Action Short Film:

• “Butcher’s Stain” – Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
• “A Friend of Dorothy” – Lee Knight and James Dean
• “Jane Austen’s Period Drama” – Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
• “The Singers” – Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
• “Two People Exchanging Saliva” – Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata

I’m going with the short with the most memorable and descriptive title, sight unseen.

Best Animated Short Film:

• “Butterfly” – Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens
• “Forevergreen” – Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
• “The Girl Who Cried Pearls” – Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
• “Retirement Plan” – John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
• “The Three Sisters” – Konstantin Bronzit

Best Adapted Screenplay:

• “Bugonia” – Screenplay by Will Tracy
• “Frankenstein” – Written for the screen by Guillermo del Toro
• “Hamnet” – Screenplay by Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
• “One Battle After Another” – Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
• “Train Dreams” – Screenplay by Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar

Best Original Screenplay:

• “Blue Moon” – Written by Robert Kaplow
• “It Was Just An Accident” – Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators Nadedr Salvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
• “Marty Supreme” – Written by Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein
• “Sentimental Value” – Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
• “Sinners” – Written by Ryan Coogler

Again, I will be repeating “Blue Moon, Blue Moon, Blue Moon” to myself over-and-over again in my apartment, against all odds.

Best Casting:

• “Hamnet” – Nina Gold
• “Marty Supreme” – Jennifer Venditti
• “One Battle after Another” – Cassandra Kulukundis
• “The Secret Agent” – Gabriel Domingues
• “Sinners” – Francine Maisler

This is the brand new category for this year’s Oscars, and while it’s not the one I’ve been calling for since circa 2015 (Best Stunt Work), it’s a worthy category in itself.

Best Cinematography:

• “Frankenstein” – Dan Laustsen
• “Marty Supreme” – Darius Khondji
• “One Battle after Another” – Michael Bauman
• “Sinners” – Autumn Durald Arkapaw
• “Train Dreams” – Adolpho Veloso

Best Costume Design:

• “Avatar: Fire and Ash” – Deborah L. Scott
• “Frankenstein” – Kate Hawley
• “Hamnet” – Malgosia Turzanska
• “Marty Supreme” – Miyako Bellizzi
• “Sinners” – Ruth E. Carter

Best Original Song:

• “Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” – Music and lyric by Diane Warren
• “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” – Music and lyric by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Dam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park
• “I Lied To You” from “Sinners” – Music and lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson
• “Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!” – Music and lyric by Nicholas Pike
• “Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams” – Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner, lyric by Nick Cave

Having played “Golden” at least once a day on my morning radio show for the last six months, I’d say that it’s a safe pick to win Best Original Song. Anytime one of the nominees becomes a radio hit, it’s a chalk pick to win the category.

Best Documentary Feature:

• “The Alabama Solution,” Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
• “Come See Me in the Good Light,” Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef Willen
• “Cutting through Rocks,” Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
• “Mr. Nobody against Putin,” Nominees to be determined
• “The Perfect Neighbor,” Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee

Best Documentary Short:

• “All the Empty Rooms” – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
• “Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” – Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
• “Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” – Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
• “The Devil Is Busy” – Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
• “Perfectly a Strangeness” – Alison McAlpine

All the Empty Rooms is worth your time, despite how heart-wrenching it is. It’s available to stream on Netflix. I plan on watching and reviewing The Devil is Busy by Sunday as well.

Best International Feature Film:

• “The Secret Agent” – Brazil
• “It Was Just an Accident” – France
• “Sentimental Value” – Norway
• “Sirat” – Spain
• “The Voice of Hind Rajab” – Tunisia

Normally, Best International Feature Film is a chalky category given the fact that usually only one of the five nominees is also up for Best Picture. That said, two foreign films in Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent are both nominated for Best Picture. It’s a coin-flip before the two. I’m leaning Sentimental Value.

Best Animated Film:

• “Arco” – Ugo Bienvenu, Felix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman
• “Elio” – Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina and Mary Alice Drumm
• “KPop Demon Hunters” – Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong
• “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” – Mailys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago and Henri Magalon
• “Zootopia 2” – Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino

Best Production Design:

• “Frankenstein” – Production design Tamara Deverell; Set decoration Shane Vieau
• “Hamnet” – Production design Fiona Crombie; Set decoration Alice Felton
• “Marty Supreme” – Production design Jack Fisk; Set decoration Adam Willis
• “One Battle After Another” – Production design Florencia Martin; Set decoration Anthony Carlino
• “Sinners” – Production design Hannah Beachler; Set decoration Monique Champagne

Best Film Editing:

• “F1” – Stephen Mirrione
• “Marty Supreme” – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdi
• “One Battle After Another” – Andy Jurgensen
• “Sentimental Value” – Olivier Bugge Coutté
• “Sinners” – Michael P. Shawver

Best Sound:

• “F1” – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
• “Frankenstein” – Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
• “One Battle after Another” – Jose Antonio Garcia, Christopher Scarbosio and Tony Villaflor
• “Sinners” – Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
• “Sirat” – Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Pradedras

Best Visual Effects:

• “Avatar: Fire and Ash” – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
• “F1” – Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
• “Jurassic World Rebirth” – David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
• “The Lost Bus” – Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
• “Sinners” – Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean

With Catherine by my side, I’ll be indulging in a lavish evening on March 15th. Here’s to a memorable Sunday.